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Important information

The information and material contained in this website are designed to provide information on Martin Currie and is only directed at Institutional Investors and Consultants.

By accepting where indicated, you hereby acknowledge, agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are eligible by confirming that you are based in the UK, you are an authorised to conduct regulated activities in the UK and that you have read and understood the "Legal & Regulatory Information", which applies to any investment in our products referred to in this website.

The information contained within this website does not constitute an offer of or an invitation to apply for securities:

In any jurisdiction where such offer or invitation is unlawful or
In which the person making such offer is not qualified to do so or
To whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The distribution of this information in written format is restricted to the UK. The information contained in this site has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy at the date of publication. But no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Any research or analysis contained in this website has been procured by Martin Currie for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
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For advisors, professional wealth managers and wholesale investors

Important information

The information and material contained in this website are designed to provide information on Martin Currie and is only directed at Institutional Investors and Consultants.

By accepting where indicated, you hereby acknowledge, agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are eligible by confirming that you are based in the UK, you are an authorised to conduct regulated activities in the UK and that you have read and understood the "Legal & Regulatory Information", which applies to any investment in our products referred to in this website.

The information contained within this website does not constitute an offer of or an invitation to apply for securities:

In any jurisdiction where such offer or invitation is unlawful or
In which the person making such offer is not qualified to do so or
To whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The distribution of this information in written format is restricted to the UK. The information contained in this site has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy at the date of publication. But no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Any research or analysis contained in this website has been procured by Martin Currie for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
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Please read this important information

Please read this important information. If you cannot make the representations below, please do not enter the website.

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are a resident of or incorporated in the United Kingdom have read and understood the "Important Information and Risk Factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are categorised as a per se or elective Professional Client for the purposes of COBS 3 of the FCA Handbook or rules and guidance. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Fund Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC104896) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority as a full-scope UK AIFM.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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For advisors, professional wealth managers and wholesale investors

Please read this important information

Please read this important information. If you cannot make the representations below, please do not enter the website.

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are a resident of or incorporated in the United Kingdom have read and understood the "Important Information and Risk Factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are categorised as a per se or elective Professional Client for the purposes of COBS 3 of the FCA Handbook or rules and guidance. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Fund Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC104896) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority as a full-scope UK AIFM.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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This website is intended for, and is relevant to, UK residents only and should not be relied upon by persons of any other jurisdiction.

By accepting where indicated, you hereby acknowledge, agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are eligible by confirming that you are based in the UK and that you have read and understood the "Legal Regulatory Information" which applies to any investment in our products referred to in this website.

Important Information:

We do not give investment advice so you need to decide if an investment is suitable for you. If you are unsure whether to invest, you should contact a financial adviser.

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By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are incorporated in a country listed below and that you are either an institutional investor, a corporate professional investor or a consultant business. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public. If you cannot make these representations, please do not enter the website.

All residents of Hong Kong: Neither Martin Currie Investment Management Limited nor Martin Currie Inc. carries on a business in a regulated activity in Hong Kong or is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission. The content of this section of the website is intended for Professional Investors only.

All residents of Singapore: The information in this section of the website is intended for institutional investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore, as amended) and consultants in Singapore only.

All residents of China: Neither Martin Currie Investment Management Limited nor Martin Currie Inc. is authorised by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to market its strategies in China. By clicking on this link, you warrant and represent that you are entering this website on your own initiative and without being influenced or induced by any third party to do so.

All residents of South Korea: The information in this section of the website is intended only for qualified professional investors and consultants based in South Korea.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Intermediary investor

For advisors, professional wealth managers and wholesale investors

Please read this important information

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are incorporated in a country listed below and that you are either an institutional investor, a corporate professional investor or a consultant business. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public. If you cannot make these representations, please do not enter the website.

All residents of Hong Kong: Neither Martin Currie Investment Management Limited nor Martin Currie Inc. carries on a business in a regulated activity in Hong Kong or is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission. The content of this section of the website is intended for Professional Investors only.

All residents of Singapore: The information in this section of the website is intended for institutional investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore, as amended) and consultants in Singapore only.

All residents of China: Neither Martin Currie Investment Management Limited nor Martin Currie Inc. is authorised by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to market its strategies in China. By clicking on this link, you warrant and represent that you are entering this website on your own initiative and without being influenced or induced by any third party to do so.

All residents of South Korea: The information in this section of the website is intended only for qualified professional investors and consultants based in South Korea.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Institutional investor

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Please read this important information

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are an Australian wholesale client for the purposes of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and have read and understood the "Legal and Regulatory Information”", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public. If you cannot make these representations, please do not enter the website.

Important Information:

Martin Currie Australia is a division of Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 849). Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Franklin Resources, Inc., and holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL No. 240827) issued pursuant to the Corporations Act 2001.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

The FCA's regulatory regime differs from the Australian regulatory regime.
This material is provided on the basis that you are a wholesale client within the definition of ASIC Class Order 03/1099. Martin Currie is registered as a foreign company under the Corporations Act 2001 (ARBN 131 134 613). It is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services provided to Australian wholesale clients by virtue of the application of ASIC Class Order 03/1099.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Intermediary investor

For advisors, professional wealth managers and wholesale investors

Please read this important information

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are an Australian wholesale client for the purposes of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and have read and understood the "Legal and Regulatory Information”", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public. If you cannot make these representations, please do not enter the website.

Important Information:

Martin Currie Australia is a division of Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 849). Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Franklin Resources, Inc., and holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL No. 240827) issued pursuant to the Corporations Act 2001.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

The FCA's regulatory regime differs from the Australian regulatory regime.
This material is provided on the basis that you are a wholesale client within the definition of ASIC Class Order 03/1099. Martin Currie is registered as a foreign company under the Corporations Act 2001 (ARBN 131 134 613). It is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services provided to Australian wholesale clients by virtue of the application of ASIC Class Order 03/1099.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Institutional investor

For consultants, pension schemes, insurers and professional investors

Please read this important information

Please read this important information. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public. If you cannot make the following representations, please do not enter the website.

All residents of Luxembourg, Republic of Ireland, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Italy, Belgium and France: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are categorised as a per se or elective Professional Client for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU (“MiFID II”). The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

All residents of Switzerland: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that that you are resident in or incorporated in Switzerland and that you are a Qualified Investor for the purposes of Article 10 of the Collective Investment Schemes Act. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Investment Management Limited has a MiFID II passport to provide investment services to Professional Clients in the European Union.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Intermediary investor

For advisors, professional wealth managers and wholesale investors

Please read this important information

Please read this important information.

All residents of Luxembourg, Republic of Ireland, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Italy, Belgium and France: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are categorised as a per se or elective Professional Client for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU (“MiFID II”). The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

All residents of Switzerland: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that that you are resident in or incorporated in Switzerland and that you are a Qualified Investor for the purposes of Article 10 of the Collective Investment Schemes Act. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Investment Management Limited has a MiFID II passport to provide investment services to Professional Clients in the European Union.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Please read this important information. If you cannot make either of the representations below, please do not enter the website.

Investors resident in the Canada: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are resident in, or incorporated in, Canada and are a Permitted Client for the purposes of NI 31-103. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Investors resident in the United States of America: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are either incorporated in, or a resident of, the United States of America and that you meet the definition of an Accredited Investor as defined in Rule 501 of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (‘The 1933 Act’). The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York with its registered office at 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com, is registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940 and is also authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc. operates under the International Adviser Exemption with the Ontario Securities Commission (‘OSC’) and is therefore currently not required to be registered as a portfolio manager for the purposes of MI 31-103.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940, National Instruments or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Intermediary investor

For advisors, professional wealth managers and wholesale investors

Please read this important information

Investors resident in the Canada: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are resident in, or incorporated in, Canada and are a Permitted Client for the purposes of NI 31-103. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Investors resident in the United States of America: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are either incorporated in, or a resident of, the United States of America and that you meet the definition of an Accredited Investor as defined in Rule 501 of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (‘The 1933 Act’). The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York with its registered office at 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com, is registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940 and is also authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc. operates under the International Adviser Exemption with the Ontario Securities Commission (‘OSC’) and is therefore currently not required to be registered as a portfolio manager for the purposes of MI 31-103.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940, National Instruments or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Institutional investor

For consultants, pension schemes, insurers and professional investors

Please read this important information

Please read this important information. If you cannot make the representations below, please do not enter the website.

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that: (i) you are an institutional investor, an intermediary investor a consultant or other professional investor; and (ii) you are entering this website on your own initiative and without being influenced or induced by any third party to do so. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Intermediary investor

For advisors, professional wealth managers and wholesale investors

Please read this important information

Please read this important information. If you cannot make the representations below, please do not enter the website.

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that: (i) you are an institutional investor, an intermediary investor a consultant or other professional investor; and (ii) you are entering this website on your own initiative and without being influenced or induced by any third party to do so. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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If none of the above applies to you, please go to our corporate site.

The Thucydides Trap – Is it real?

There is now a well-established school of thought in both academia and in foreign policy, according to which the United States and China are now in their own modern-day version of the Thucydides Trap.

Thucydides (Θουκυδίδης) is recognised as the first chronicler of his own times in the ancient world. His History of the Peloponnesian War is the earliest recorded political and moral analysis of a nation’s conduct of a war. His analysis was that the two sides, Athens and Sparta, were essentially destined to go to war, because Athens, the incumbent super power of the day, was unsettled by the ambitions of the rapidly advancing Sparta, who resented Athens’ superiority. As Sparta’s confidence and demands increased, it became clear that Athens had to respond, and battle was joined.

Hope is an expensive commodity. It is better to be prepared.

(Thucydides)

The Peloponnesian war began in 431 BC, 40 years after the Athenians and the Spartans had fought as allies to defeat the Persian army of Xerxes. In the interim, Athens’ preeminent naval power brought riches and territories, whilst Sparta slowly built up its standing army and mounted its challenge. In the event, Athens lost after an exhausting 30-year war, as much weakened by the plague which eliminated a third of its population and killed its leader, Pericles, as by Sparta’s ruthless land campaign.The Thucydides Trap

There is now a well-established school of thought in both academia and in foreign policy, according to which we the United States and China are now in their own modern-day version of the Thucydides Trap. Seen through this prism, the large-scale infrastructure driven Belt and Road Initiative, the 1.9% of GDP being spent on defence and the installations of early warning radar and defensive capabilities in the South China Sea look like offensive moves to Washington, DC. From Beijing, they are seen as defensive and sensible – China believes it is bound to build out its national defensive capabilities, especially after a decades long period of under-investment.

Thucydides was a believer in a balance of powers as a mechanism to ensure order in an essentially anarchic world. Over the last 70 years, the growth of trade has served as a tension minimiser and a permanent reminder that countries do have shared interests and can benefit from closer understanding. The situation today is deteriorating rapidly as those investors who are paying attention struggle to understand if what’s going on between China and the US is just a nasty trade war, or an uncompromising cold war.

In both Beijing and Washington DC, the decision-making circles have become smaller, with less interest in what expert practitioners have to say and more focus on gut instinct and visceral passion. This is a big problem, because it makes it less easy to ‘read’ signals correctly and lessens the likelihood of ‘cooler heads’ prevailing.

Both of these point to higher chances of misunderstanding and further escalation, especially as both sides demand loyalty of their people and as a result, there is less tolerance of dissenting voices.

Depending on the outcome of next year’s elections, we could be headed for an irreversible cold war in relations

Unfortunately for everyone else, if the US and China are locked in this embrace, it matters for global economic growth, which means it matters for investors everywhere. One of the reasons for concern lies in the continuing trend towards deafness on both sides. In both capitals, there is a growing belief that the other is weaker than it appears and it’s only a matter of time before it cracks under pressure. Any attempt to decouple the US and Chinese economies will be messy, painful and damaging to investors and consumers. It’s not clear however that Washington either recognises that, or indeed that it cares.

So where are the two sides?

Washington has found unusual bipartisan consensus on the judgement of China as a ‘bad actor’. One school of thought was that after China’s entry into the WTO, Beijing would be seduced by the dominant Anglo-Saxon capitalist model and would begin to copy us. The other is that China is Communist, therefore hates the American way of life and will try to prevail at every opportunity. At the moment, they seem to be converging. In Beijing there were also two main camps, but now it seems that the prevailing view is that the US is using trade as a pretext and as such is showing its real, dastardly intentions, to keep China from developing, from gaining her rightful place in the world.

Beijing has lost any awe it may have had of our Anglo-Saxon way of doing business when the capitalist system crashed in 2008. Today, Beijing’s priorities are: Clean air and water, rising living standards, a break from the dependency on US technology and the permanence of the Communist Party.

It’s now official. The US 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defence Strategy documents both identified China as the United States’ main strategic competitor. The Chinese 2019 Defence White Paper* takes up the challenge and spells out that the two countries are now competing superpowers and the objective is to develop Chinas forces to the point where they can challenge the U.S. But it also explains its defence moves to date and explains why they should be viewed as justifiable and non-threatening.

By recognising these openly and addressing the concerns voiced in the American documents, Beijing is seeking to demonstrate its open handedness and to establish a communication. It seems somehow fittingly strange, that the people who are seeking to maintain open communication channels are the militaries, not the governments.

* Issued in English and Chinese in July 2019
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