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The information contained within this website does not constitute an offer of or an invitation to apply for securities:

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To whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The distribution of this information in written format is restricted to the UK. The information contained in this site has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy at the date of publication. But no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Any research or analysis contained in this website has been procured by Martin Currie for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
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Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Fund Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC104896) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority as a full-scope UK AIFM.

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For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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The FCA's regulatory regime differs from the Australian regulatory regime.
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Important Information:

Martin Currie Australia is a division of Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 849). Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL No. AFSL 240827) issued pursuant to the Corporations Act 2001.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

The FCA's regulatory regime differs from the Australian regulatory regime.
This material is provided on the basis that you are a wholesale client within the definition of ASIC Class Order 03/1099. Martin Currie is registered as a foreign company under the Corporations Act 2001 (ARBN 131 134 613). It is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services provided to Australian wholesale clients by virtue of the application of ASIC Class Order 03/1099.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Investment Management Limited has a MiFID II passport to provide investment services to Professional Clients in the European Union.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Investment Management Limited has a MiFID II passport to provide investment services to Professional Clients in the European Union.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York with its registered office at 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com, is registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940 and is also authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc. operates under the International Adviser Exemption with the Ontario Securities Commission (‘OSC’) and is therefore currently not required to be registered as a portfolio manager for the purposes of MI 31-103.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940, National Instruments or any other applicable law or regulation.

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Investors resident in the United States of America: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are either incorporated in, or a resident of, the United States of America and that you meet the definition of an Accredited Investor as defined in Rule 501 of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (‘The 1933 Act’). The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York with its registered office at 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com, is registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940 and is also authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc. operates under the International Adviser Exemption with the Ontario Securities Commission (‘OSC’) and is therefore currently not required to be registered as a portfolio manager for the purposes of MI 31-103.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940, National Instruments or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Podcast: Q1 earnings season wrap-up – maintaining our conviction

Zehrid Osmani summarises the recent earnings season, reveals his Q2 forecasts, and explains how he maintains conviction in current markets.

Zehrid Osmani Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained

We continue to see our core scenario for 2020 as accurate based on what we have seen from this results season

Zehrid Osmani summarises the recent earnings season, reveals his Q2 forecasts, and explains how he maintains conviction in current markets.

The podcast covers key topics including:

  • Key points from the earnings season and an update on earnings risks we foresee
  • A portfolio update - specifically how we maintain high-conviction exposures


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The market reaction to the earnings has clearly been positive, with a shift from the fear we saw in March...

Script

It’s Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global, US and European Long-Term Unconstrained, and manager of Global Portfolio Trust at Martin Currie.

We have structured this podcast on two parts:

  1. an update on our market thoughts - focusing on the earnings season we have been going through and an update on the earnings risks we foresee, and;
  2. an update on our portfolios - specifically how we deliver conviction exposures.

As a reminder, we manage high conviction best ideas portfolios focusing on long term sustainable quality growth stocks, which have low disruption risk, high barriers to entry, strong pricing power, attractive growth and returns profiles, good ESG profile and attractive valuations. We offer our investors Global, European, International and US versions of our Long-Term Unconstrained funds, as well as Global Portfolio Trust being one of our Global offerings.

Starting with an update on our thoughts on the market: and to reiterate again, these market comments are aimed to give our listeners food for thought. We are long-term investors, we manage assets with a long horizon perspective, and therefore some of the market thoughts do not impact our long-term thinking.

There are a few things worth highlighting about the markets at the moment:

  • Unemployment rates are sky-rocketing, and labour market has deteriorated significantly and very rapidly.
  • We need to therefore watch the potential negative feedback loop on the economic activity of such deterioration, if we don’t get back to previous levels of employment once economies come out of lock-down fully.
  • That risk is significant in our view, given that the shape of both supply and demand is unlikely to come back to normal post lock-downs as a result of enforced social distancing.
  • Economic leading indicators are likely to rebound over the next 1-3 months in our view.
  • It is somewhat mechanical, given how sharp a deterioration we have seen as lockdowns got implemented across the globe and given the fact that the survey is assessing improvement/deterioration compared to the previously carried survey.
  • It might have the potential of sending the market into hope or euphoria about a rapid recovery in economic activity coming up.
  • But that recovery could be more muted than what the PMI headline figures might imply.
  • Shape of recovery will still be an important talking point for the months and years to come, so we will need to remain vigilant as the situation evolves, and continue to reassess our core assumptions.
  • As a reminder, we have a core top-down assumption of a recovery that is likely to be gradual, without going back to previous levels of activity until 2022.

Worth moving onto the results season we have been going through. It has been a very busy results season given the significant recessionary environment we are going through as a result of the pandemic crisis. It has certainly been the busiest results season in my close to 23 years of experience of financial markets.

  • Earnings downgrades have been significant since the start of the year, as we flagged in our last podcast - to the tune of 25%+ downgrades with earnings declines now standing at more than 20% year on year for the US and Europe, and close to -20% for MSCI World1.
  • Earnings seasons have shown confirmation of the magnitude of slow down, and we are forecasting Q2 to show an even more severe slow down.
  • Earnings surprises for Q1 have been negative, despite the sizeably reduced estimates ahead of reporting, with a 1% negative surprise in the US and a 3% negative surprise in Europe2.
  • We continue to see our core scenario for 2020 as accurate based on what we have seen from this results season.
  • Our core assumptions, which we detailed in the last podcast, are implying a year-on-year earnings decline of circa 33% globally in 2020, so we are still expecting more earnings downgrades to come3.
  • The market reaction to the earnings has clearly been positive, with a shift from the fear we saw in March, to a willingness to look through to recovery rather than to the current profit warnings and downgrades that we are going through.

We also typically end up with a list of stocks that are away from the large blue-chip mega-cap companies, which makes our funds somewhat differentiated in terms of holdings list.

Shifting to our portfolios and moving to the second section of our podcast, to discuss how we deliver high conviction funds. As a reminder, we manage high conviction best ideas portfolios focusing on long-term sustainable quality growth stocks, which have low disruption risk, high barriers to entry, strong pricing power, attractive growth and returns profiles, good ESG profile and attractive valuations. We offer our investors Global, European, International and US versions of our Long-Term Unconstrained funds, as well as Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust being one of our global offerings.

Our portfolios focus on best ideas, delivered in a high conviction way. We estimate conviction levels on any stock we hold through our proprietary analytical framework and ensure that all of our holdings express our strong convictions on business model, competitive positioning, structural growth outlook, returns profile and potential for further improvements. And we make sure we rapidly act and attend urgently to stocks where our conviction is weakening, in order to understand the reasons for that, and assess how we can rebuild conviction. If at the end of that process, we cannot rebuild conviction in a name we take action and exit. And we recycle that exposure into our high conviction names, which we size properly to capture the alpha we expect from such convictions.

As I always say: in a high-conviction portfolio, there is no room for low conviction.

Also, focusing on delivering solely high-conviction stocks to our investors means that we have to make tough choices: When a new stock comes through our fundamental research work and is high conviction, we take the approach that in order to buy it, we need to make a decision on which stock to exit and replace it with. As all our stocks are typically high conviction, it makes for a tough choice at times. We generally assess upside to price target, conviction levels, risk profiles and impact any of these stocks have on the overall portfolio risk exposures and shape. It ensures that we stay disciplined and only buy new stocks based on a high threshold of selection criteria.

We also typically end up with a list of stocks that are away from the large blue-chip mega-cap companies, which makes our funds somewhat differentiated in terms of holdings list.  

In the next podcast, we will focus on the topics of market valuations, which we didn’t get the chance to discuss given the importance of tackling the earnings season in this podcast. We will also zoom in on our proprietary ESG risk assessments as part of our investment process.

We would like to finish this podcast with what has become a customary quote from us to capture the mood of the markets and of the podcast we have recorded: “Believing in an investment opportunity comes from having conviction about the investment case”. 

It’s Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global, US and European Long-Term Unconstrained, and manager of Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust at Martin Currie.

Wishing our listeners a good day.

Stay safe, keep the spirits up and stay optimistic.


1Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates, 2020 and J.P. Morgan estimates, 2020.
2Source: J.P. Morgan, Q1 Earnings Season Tracker - Key Takeaways, 2020.
3Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates, 2020 and J.P. Morgan estimates, 2020.


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This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’). It does not constitute investment advice. Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested.

The analysis of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors form an important part of the investment process and helps inform investment decisions. The strategy does not necessarily target particular sustainability outcomes.

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