AFTERMATH: An introduction
While it is hard to build conviction on when or how the emergency will subside, the nature of markets is to constantly strive to quantify and identify cause and effect, trend and secular change. In the introduction to the series, Kim Catechis discusses how COVID-19 is already in the process of materially changing our economies, social fabric and governance globally.
We do expect geopolitical considerations to worm their way into investment outcomes. Over the next few weeks, I will be sitting down with colleagues to talk through some of the high-level points.
Hello, thanks for joining.
COVID-19 is without doubt an unprecedented health care security emergency. It has profound socioeconomic and even geopolitical implications.
We’ve done a lot of work on this, and our conclusions are that most trends that we were following and monitoring before are simply accelerating. There is minimal deviating of direction. The course seems to have been set.
But, there are a couple of exceptions. One of them is the area of government. Now even in mature, and what we think of as stable democracies, you should expect the government to take a bigger role. This will mean more legislation, more interference, and there is going to be more taxation.
Part of this is going to be driven by society itself. One of the impacts of the pandemic has been an exacerbation of the existing inequality, and as a result you should expect this to be a political hot potato going forward.
One of the areas that may get a positive boost is climate change. Finally, it could be that governments that could not get together and agree a cooperative stance over COVID-19, will recognise that there is an opportunity here to reanimate their economies and go green at the same time. That would be a great outcome for the planet.
And last but not least, do expect geopolitical considerations to worm their way into investment outcomes. There is a lot of it going around, it is not just the trade wars. We can talk more about this at leisure in the future.
Over the next few weeks, to help me parse through this, I’ve asked colleagues of mine from our Melbourne office, our London and our Edinburgh offices to sit down and talk through some of the high-level points.
What I’m asking from you is to engage with us, be part of that debate, asses what we are saying and please give us feedback.
Thank you very much.
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