With the US presidential election results still uncertain – and looking harder to call than pre-election polls indicated – we believe, as predicted, that volatility in the markets could remain elevated until we know the final outcome, which could still be days or weeks away. This likely short-term market volatility is a good reminder for investors of the importance of focusing on the long-term picture. Our long-term analytical framework, focusing on three important structural long-term mega-trends (demographic changes, future of technology and resource scarcity) help us navigate through choppy short-term markets, and focus our clients’ exposures on attractive structural growth trends.
Beyond the near-term uncertainty around the election result, we believe that there are some attractive long-term, structural opportunities which should remain supported no matter who becomes the next president.
These are: infrastructure spend; green initiatives; and healthcare. We believe that no matter which candidate ends up in the White House, infrastructure spend will be an important policy initiative to reignite the economic growth post pandemic. Healthcare infrastructure will likely be an important recipient of the fiscal spending initiative, given the need to upgrade the healthcare infrastructure in the wake of COVID-19. Finally, green initiatives are likely to remain an important long-term structural opportunity, even if this would be more of an emphasis for a Biden rather than a Trump administration – that said, it is ultimately a long-term trend unlikely to be derailed, no matter who wins the US election.
We would also expect both candidates to focus their attention on big tech, and assess the potential anti-competitive behaviours that might be present in activities in this sector; the increased scrutiny and risk of higher regulatory pressures could bring uncertainty for some of the stocks in this space.
Our long-term time horizon, and structured analytical framework help us avoid the short-term market considerations, and point our clients’ portfolios on long-term structural growth opportunities that are likely to generate high returns over a long-term timeframe.
Regulatory information and risk warnings
This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’). It does not constitute investment advice. Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested.
Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
The information contained has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Martin Currie has procured any research or analysis contained in this document for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
The opinions contained in this recording are those of the named manager. They may not necessarily represent the views of other Martin Currie managers, strategies or funds. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, research, a guarantee of future results or investment advice.
The analysis of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors form an important part of the investment process and helps inform investment decisions. A strategy does not necessarily target particular sustainability outcomes.
For wholesale investors in Australia: This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited ('MCIM'). It does not constitute investment advice. Any distribution of this material in Australia is by Martin Currie Australia Limited ('MCA'). Martin Currie Australia is a division of Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 849). Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL No. AFSL240827) issued pursuant to the Corporations Act 2001.
For institutional investors in the USA: The information contained within this presentation is for Institutional Investors only who meet the definition of Accredited Investor as defined in Rule 501 of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (‘The 1933 Act’) and the definition of Qualified Purchasers as defined in section 2 (a) (51) (A) of the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (‘the 1940 Act’). It is not for intended for use by members of the general public.
Martin Currie Investment Management Limited registered in Scotland (no SC066107) Registered office: Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace. Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (0) 131 229 5252 Fax: 44 (0) 131 228 5959 www.martincurrie.com. Please note that calls to the above number may be recorded.