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Our take on the latest investment themes

View [The Thucydides Trap – Is it real?] Thucydides Trap

The Thucydides Trap – Is it real?

by Kim Catechis

There is now a well-established school of thought in both academia and in foreign policy, according to which the United States and China are now in their own modern-day version of the Thucydides Trap.

2 October 2019
View [Opening up another front: Capital Markets] OpeningUpAnotherFrontAbstract

Opening up another front: Capital Markets

by Kim Catechis

Investors appear to have gradually become numbed to the seemingly endless flow of tweets and leaks from the White House and the ensuing furore over trying to interpret soundbites, but this is one that should be taken seriously.

2 October 2019
View [5G in the eye of the hurricane] BTH5GEyeOfTheHurricaneAbstract

5G in the eye of the hurricane

by Kim Catechis

The fourth industrial revolution is known for the significant advances we expect in technology, especially AI (artificial intelligence), driverless transport, etc. The most important enabler of this revolution is 5G technology, which places it at the epicentre of the geopolitical confrontations that are building now.

30 September 2019
View [Currency Wars] BTHAugust6thAbstract

Currency Wars

by Kim Catechis

In an historic move, the US Treasury has designated China as a currency manipulator, for the first time since 1994.

6 August 2019
View [Change at the top – the knock-on effects] BehindtheHeadlinesAbstract

Change at the top – the knock-on effects

by Kim Catechis

Mexico’s finance minister resigns after just seven months and Turkey’s central bank governor is fired by the president.

10 July 2019
View [Have US Markets run out of rocket fuel] Have US markets run out of fuel?

Have US Markets run out of rocket fuel

by Kim Catechis

Markets around the world have fallen sharply so far in October, shaking investors out of their comfort zone. Why is this happening?

30 October 2018
View [Contagion contained] Istanbul overhead

Contagion contained

by Kim Catechis

Turkey’s currency crisis in early August prompted an all-too familiar set of headlines. A predictable news flow that was eager to foretell that the crisis would deepen and inevitably spread across the entire asset class.

29 October 2018
View [Brazil's polarising election] Brasilia

Brazil's polarising election

by Kim Catechis

After victory in the first round of voting, Jair Bolsonaro, the anti-establishment right winger, now appears to have a commanding lead over Fernando Haddad of the PT (workers’ party), ahead of Sunday’s election.

25 October 2018
View [EM earnings - beware the consensus view] EM EARNINGS – BEWARE THE CONSENSUS VIEW

EM earnings - beware the consensus view

by Kim Catechis

Investors should take Emerging Market earnings forecasts with a pinch of salt, we see the positive prospects in the asset class.

1 October 2018