Focal point

Our take on the latest investment themes

View [Opening up another front: Capital Markets] OpeningUpAnotherFrontAbstract

Opening up another front: Capital Markets

by Kim Catechis

Investors appear to have gradually become numbed to the seemingly endless flow of tweets and leaks from the White House and the ensuing furore over trying to interpret soundbites, but this is one that should be taken seriously.

2 October 2019
View [The Thucydides Trap – Is it real?] Thucydides Trap

The Thucydides Trap – Is it real?

by Kim Catechis

There is now a well-established school of thought in both academia and in foreign policy, according to which the United States and China are now in their own modern-day version of the Thucydides Trap.

2 October 2019
View [5G in the eye of the hurricane] BTH5GEyeOfTheHurricaneAbstract

5G in the eye of the hurricane

by Kim Catechis

The fourth industrial revolution is known for the significant advances we expect in technology, especially AI (artificial intelligence), driverless transport, etc. The most important enabler of this revolution is 5G technology, which places it at the epicentre of the geopolitical confrontations that are building now.

30 September 2019
View [Toughing out the trade war] BTHAug9th2019Abstract

Toughing out the trade war

by Kim Catechis

The latest data indicates a picture that is more nuanced than headlines suggest. It appears that China is not imploding and investors are having trouble cutting through the noise.

9 August 2019
View [Currency Wars] BTHAugust6thAbstract

Currency Wars

by Kim Catechis

In an historic move, the US Treasury has designated China as a currency manipulator, for the first time since 1994.

6 August 2019
View [China Growth – How bad is it?] BTHAug1stAbstract

China Growth – How bad is it?

by Kim Catechis

In my experience, GDP numbers rarely elicit dramatic headlines, reeking of urgency and desperation. But when China announced GDP growth of 6.2% for the second quarter, it seemed to me that anguish was in the air.

1 August 2019
View [Change at the top – the knock-on effects] BehindtheHeadlinesAbstract

Change at the top – the knock-on effects

by Kim Catechis

Mexico’s finance minister resigns after just seven months and Turkey’s central bank governor is fired by the president.

10 July 2019
View [Have US Markets run out of rocket fuel] Have US markets run out of fuel?

Have US Markets run out of rocket fuel

by Kim Catechis

Markets around the world have fallen sharply so far in October, shaking investors out of their comfort zone. Why is this happening?

30 October 2018
View [Contagion contained] Istanbul overhead

Contagion contained

by Kim Catechis

Turkey’s currency crisis in early August prompted an all-too familiar set of headlines. A predictable news flow that was eager to foretell that the crisis would deepen and inevitably spread across the entire asset class.

29 October 2018