Focal point

Our take on the latest investment themes

View [Global growth – what should we worry about?] BTHGlobalGrowthAbstract

Global growth – what should we worry about?

by Kim Catechis

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is cautiously optimistic on the prospects for a gradual global economic growth recovery...

22 January 2020
View [What Currency Manipulation?] BTHCurrencyManipulationAbstract

What Currency Manipulation?

by Kim Catechis

In another historic move, the US Treasury has reversed its designation of China as a currency manipulator, after only four months. It sounds important, but it is essentially more meaningless theatre for investors...

16 January 2020
View [The US-China Phase I trade deal – Much ado about nothing?] BTHUSCHINAPhase1Abstract

The US-China Phase I trade deal – Much ado about nothing?

by Kim Catechis

The US – China trade war has now been escalating for 32 months. Investors are fatigued and worried about the implications for global economic growth. Their weariness is evidenced in a decreasing level of interest in the detail and heightened focus on the headlines.

18 December 2019
View [Brazil – Turning point for equity culture?] BTHBrazilTurningPointAbstract

Brazil – Turning point for equity culture?

by Kim Catechis

When real rates are high, it’s easy to keep your clients happy. This will result in a wider dispersion in returns, as investment managers begin to demonstrate their worth. This is the turning point for equity culture in Brazil – the job just got more complex!

4 November 2019
View [The Thucydides Trap – Is it real?] Thucydides Trap

The Thucydides Trap – Is it real?

by Kim Catechis

There is now a well-established school of thought in both academia and in foreign policy, according to which the United States and China are now in their own modern-day version of the Thucydides Trap.

2 October 2019
View [Opening up another front: Capital Markets] OpeningUpAnotherFrontAbstract

Opening up another front: Capital Markets

by Kim Catechis

Investors appear to have gradually become numbed to the seemingly endless flow of tweets and leaks from the White House and the ensuing furore over trying to interpret soundbites, but this is one that should be taken seriously.

2 October 2019
View [5G in the eye of the hurricane] BTH5GEyeOfTheHurricaneAbstract

5G in the eye of the hurricane

by Kim Catechis

The fourth industrial revolution is known for the significant advances we expect in technology, especially AI (artificial intelligence), driverless transport, etc. The most important enabler of this revolution is 5G technology, which places it at the epicentre of the geopolitical confrontations that are building now.

30 September 2019
View [Toughing out the trade war] BTHAug9th2019Abstract

Toughing out the trade war

by Kim Catechis

The latest data indicates a picture that is more nuanced than headlines suggest. It appears that China is not imploding and investors are having trouble cutting through the noise.

9 August 2019
View [Currency Wars] BTHAugust6thAbstract

Currency Wars

by Kim Catechis

In an historic move, the US Treasury has designated China as a currency manipulator, for the first time since 1994.

6 August 2019