European Long/Short: Macro and market update

16 October 2019

Quantitative analysis: Macro Matrix – tactical credit and economic indicators

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  • Yields have risen and curves have steepened a little due to hopes that looser monetary policy will help growth and inflation.
  • However, raw material prices continue to grind downwards.
  • Inventory levels continue to be cut which is putting pressure on economic growth and GDP although we may see this dynamic stabilise in the coming months.

Qualitative analysis: Market Traffic Lights – providing a strategic view

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  • European PMI data continues to deteriorate and corporate earnings are likely to continue to fall both this year and next. Historical data suggests we should be near a low.
  • Global PMI data continues to be weak and combined with the ongoing tariff wars there is a real threat to global growth. Any agreements over trade, Brexit and digital taxes will be a positive.
  • Further interest rate cuts will reduce income via falling savings incomes. We have seen the German and French consumer raising savings as a result.

Important information

This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’). It does not constitute investment advice.

Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested.
The opinions contained in this document are those of the named manager(s). They may not necessarily represent the views of other Martin Currie managers, strategies or funds.
The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that any of the security transactions discussed here were or will prove to be profitable.