Focal point

Our take on the latest investment themes

View [Toughing out the trade war] BTHAug9th2019Abstract

Toughing out the trade war

by Kim Catechis

The latest data indicates a picture that is more nuanced than headlines suggest. It appears that China is not imploding and investors are having trouble cutting through the noise.

9 August 2019
View [Currency Wars] BTHAugust6thAbstract

Currency Wars

by Kim Catechis

In an historic move, the US Treasury has designated China as a currency manipulator, for the first time since 1994.

6 August 2019
View [China Growth – How bad is it?] BTHAug1stAbstract

China Growth – How bad is it?

by Kim Catechis

In my experience, GDP numbers rarely elicit dramatic headlines, reeking of urgency and desperation. But when China announced GDP growth of 6.2% for the second quarter, it seemed to me that anguish was in the air.

1 August 2019
View [Change at the top – the knock-on effects] BehindtheHeadlinesAbstract

Change at the top – the knock-on effects

by Kim Catechis

Mexico’s finance minister resigns after just seven months and Turkey’s central bank governor is fired by the president.

10 July 2019
View [Have US Markets run out of rocket fuel] Have US markets run out of fuel?

Have US Markets run out of rocket fuel

by Kim Catechis

Markets around the world have fallen sharply so far in October, shaking investors out of their comfort zone. Why is this happening?

30 October 2018
View [Contagion contained] Istanbul overhead

Contagion contained

by Kim Catechis

Turkey’s currency crisis in early August prompted an all-too familiar set of headlines. A predictable news flow that was eager to foretell that the crisis would deepen and inevitably spread across the entire asset class.

29 October 2018
View [Brazil's polarising election] Brasilia

Brazil's polarising election

by Kim Catechis

After victory in the first round of voting, Jair Bolsonaro, the anti-establishment right winger, now appears to have a commanding lead over Fernando Haddad of the PT (workers’ party), ahead of Sunday’s election.

25 October 2018
View [EM earnings - beware the consensus view] EM EARNINGS – BEWARE THE CONSENSUS VIEW

EM earnings - beware the consensus view

by Kim Catechis

Investors should take Emerging Market earnings forecasts with a pinch of salt, we see the positive prospects in the asset class.

1 October 2018
View [Deal or no deal - Positives for Mexico] Mexican trade

Deal or no deal - Positives for Mexico

by Kim Catechis

Only a few months ago, NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) looked dead in the water. The US seemed hell-bent on walking away from the 24-year-old deal, while Canada and Mexico were unwilling to concede any ground.

11 September 2018