What history tells investors about the Coronavirus outbreak
We suspect the market will follow a similar pattern and will recover rapidly when there is evidence that the number of new cases has peaked
On 30th January 2020 The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared1 the new coronavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). This effectively triggers a higher profile reaction from the WHO, involving higher cooperation and the provision of technical support2, not only to China but also to other countries that may lack the infrastructure to deal with a spreading outbreak.
For laypeople, there is now a new official name: COVID-19.
As of 14th February, China has announced that 63,851 people have contracted the virus and 1,380 have died.
SARS History – chart & timeline
History offers the best guide for us in terms of how the stock market may perform against the backdrop of the ongoing coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. The most obvious reference point is the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak of 2003. From its discovery in February 2003, the SARS outbreak lasted approximately six months as the disease spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before it was stopped in July 2003.
Below is a chart of the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan spanning the period immediately before and after the outbreak. Firstly, it is important to note that it was a very different world back then: China is 16.3% of world GDP today versus 4.3% in 2003 (Source: IMF); and the SARS outbreak occurred during a period of very weak market sentiment, while the coronavirus came in previously positive market environment.
However, there are some similarities in terms of the disease: we can tentatively say that the reproduction number3 of the virus is similar to SARS, its incubation period appears to be a little longer and the mortality rate appears to be broadly similar. Additionally, the Chinese authorities reported the coronavirus very quickly (with SARS it took them almost 3 months) and have responded more aggressively in terms of its containment strategy. It is therefore hoped that the time to halting its expansion will be similar to SARS (i.e. around 4 months from the date when the WHO announced a global emergency).
Asian stock markets only became aware of SARS in early / mid-March 2003 when reports of the illness began to emerge, with the WHO formally issuing a global alert on 12th March 2003. As you can see in the chart below, the market bottomed shortly thereafter.
Stock markets are discounting mechanisms and respond swiftly to bad news. By the time of the WHO confirmation, markets were already partially pricing it in. The Asian markets remained volatile within approximately a 10% range and began to recover as data revealed that the number of new SARS cases appeared to be peaking (the peak turned out to be the 23rd April). A full-blown rally was underway by July when the US CDC (Center for Disease Control) lifted its travel alert for China, with the WHO declared global containment a few days later.
Source: Factset as at 14 February 2020
We suspect the market will follow a similar pattern and will recover rapidly when there is evidence that the number of new cases has peaked. For SARS approximately 6 weeks elapsed from the initial global alert from the WHO and the emergence of enough data to encourage investors that the worst was past. Investors will be watching closely for signs of this.
Since the coronavirus hit the headlines, MSCI AC Asia ex Japan declined by 7.5% from its January 2020 highs, but at the time of writing has recouped around one third of this; the Chinese A share markets, which were closed for an extended Lunar New Year holiday, re-opened today and caught up with other regional indices, closing sharply lower on their first day of trading (SSE Composite -9.95% and the China Shenzhen SE A Share Index -6.61%) but made meaningful recoveries since then (SSE recouping 40% of losses and Shenzhen 75%).
Valuations today are higher than in 2003: MSCI AC Asia ex Japan FY1 PER is 15x versus 11.6x at end February 2003 and the FY1 PBR is 1.56x versus 1.23x. It is not obvious to us that this valuation gap will be completely closed during this ‘risk-off’ phase as interest rates are lower today and governments are more primed today to respond to market volatility than in 2003.
Additionally, prior to the outbreak there was accumulating evidence that the global cycle, backed by supportive policy action, was beginning to improve. If the market does move to fresh lows, we expect it will only hold those levels briefly and rebound sharply on the first indications that the number of new cases of infection has peaked.
- November 16: The first case of atypical pneumonia is reported in the Guangdong province in southern China.
- Feb. 26, 2003 -- First cases of unusual pneumonia reported in Hanoi, Vietnam.
- Feb 28, 2003 -- World Health Organization officer Carlo Urbani, MD, examines an American businessman with an unknown form of pneumonia in a French hospital in Hanoi, Vietnam.
- March 10, 2003 -- Urbani reports an unusual outbreak of the illness, which he calls sudden acute respiratory syndrome or SARS, to the main office of the WHO. He notes that the disease has infected an usually high number of healthcare workers (22) at the hospital.
- March 11, 2003 -- A similar outbreak of a mysterious respiratory disease is reported among healthcare workers in Hong Kong.
- March 12: The World Health Organization (WHO) issues a global alert for a severe form of pneumonia of unknown origin in persons from China, Vietnam, and Hong Kong.
- March 14: CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC).
- March 15: CDC issues first health alert and hosts media telebriefing about an atypical pneumonia that has been named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). CDC issues interim guidelines for state and local health departments on SARS.
- CDC issues a “Health Alert Notice” for travelers to the United States from Hong Kong, Guangdong Province (China).
- March 20: CDC issues infection control precautions for aerosol-generating procedures on patients who are suspected of having SARS.
- March 22: CDC issues interim laboratory biosafety guidelines for handling and processing specimens associated with SARS.
- March 24: CDC laboratory analysis suggests a new coronavirus may be the cause of SARS. In the United States, 39 suspect cases (to date) had been identified. Of those cases, 32 of 39 had traveled to countries were SARS was reported.
- March 27: CDC issues interim domestic guidelines for management of exposures to SARS for healthcare and other institutional settings.
- March 28: The SARs outbreak is more widespread. CDC begins utilizing pandemic planning for SARS.
- March 29: CDC extended its travel advisory for SARS to include all of mainland China and added Singapore. CDC quarantine staff began meeting planes, cargo ships and cruise ships coming either directly or indirectly to the United States from China, Singapore and Vietnam and also begins distributing health alert cards to travelers.
- April 4: The number of suspected U.S. SARS cases was 115; reported from 29 states. There were no deaths among these suspect cases of SARS in the United States.
- April 5: CDC establishes community outreach team to address stigmatization associated with SARS.
- April 10: CDC issued specific guidance for students exposed to SARS.
- April 14: CDC publishes a sequence of the virus believed to be responsible for the global epidemic of SARS. Identifying the genetic sequence of a new virus is important to treatment and prevention efforts. The results came just 12 days after a team of scientists and technicians began working around the clock to grow cells taken from the throat culture of a SARS patient.
- April 22: CDC issues a health alert for travelers to Toronto, Ontario (Canada)
- May 6: In the United States, no new probable cases were reported in the last 24 hours, and there was no evidence of ongoing transmission beyond the initial case reports in travelers for more than 20 days. The containment in the United States has been successful.
- May 20: CDC lifted the travel alert on Toronto because more than 30 days (or three SARS incubation periods) had elapsed since the date of onset of symptoms for the last reported case.
- May 23: CDC reinstated travel alert for Toronto because on May 22, Canadian health officials reported a cluster of five new probable SARS cases.
- June 4: CDC removed the travel alert for Singapore and downgraded the traveler notification for Hong Kong from a travel advisory to a travel alert.
- July 3: CDC removed the travel alert for mainland China.
- July 5: WHO announced that the global SARS outbreak was contained.
- July 10: CDC removed the travel alert for Hong Kong and Toronto.
- July 15: CDC removed the travel alert for Taiwan.
- July 17: CDC updated the SARS case definition which reduced the number of U.S. cases by half. The change results from excluding cases in which blood specimens that were collected more than 21 days after the onset of illness test negative.
- December 31: Globally, WHO received reports of SARS from 29 countries and regions; 8,096 persons with probable SARS resulting in 774 deaths. In the United States, eight SARS infections were documented by laboratory testing and an additional 19 probable SARS infections were reported.
Meanwhile, bond funds saw significant inflows in the last week, as investors are beginning to bet that the peak of the outbreak is near and concerns over the negative impact on the world economy are outweighed by the expectation of big stimulus from Beijing and other capitals, as central banks feel obliged to be proactive, to compensate for a soft first quarter of economic activity. The buying has been fairly widely spread, boosting Greek bonds, as proxies for a renewed appetite for risk assets.
3A statistic calculated by epidemiologists which measures the number of people that one person can infect
Source: MSCI. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indexes or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI.
This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’), authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The opinions contained in this document are those of the named manager(s). They may not necessarily represent the views of other Martin Currie managers, strategies or funds. It does not constitute investment advice. Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested. The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.