The Aftermath is Martin Currie’s ground-breaking study on the new realities that are occurring as a result of the pandemic. Covering a vast range of economic, societal and environmental outcomes, the research outlines the key themes and implications relevant for long-term equity investors.
The role of the state
The role of the state will change even in ‘mature’ and ‘stable’ democracies. The harsh reality is that ‘big government’ is better placed to deal with pandemics. Even governments in hitherto considered mature and stable democracies are to varying degrees stretching traditional norms.
There is a vast dispersion in outcomes from the changing business norms and flexible working to travel and transport. What is clear is that every sector of the economy to greater or lesser degrees will be affected by the pandemic.
Existing trends in society, the global economy and geopolitics will accelerate but not deviate substantially. The course has broadly been set already, from a growing rejection of traditional politics, to an increasing focus on climate change and a technology-led reinterpretation of business models.
Climate change policies could benefit from higher prioritisation. Given the global extent of the cost of COVID-19, in human lives and in material losses, a recalibration of attitudes to global threats and an intensifying public pressure could result in a higher prioritisation of climate change policy.
Geopolitical risk will increase. Every dormant or low-intensity geopolitical stress point in the world will become more amplified. For many countries, there are sources of geopolitical or even existential risk that have lain semi-dormant for over 70 years and are reawakening now. The tone will be set by the US-China confrontation.
Navigating the world after covid-19
In our final video for the series, Kim discusses the likely changes in direction that the world will take after COVID-19, and the winners, losers and investment implications.
Regulatory information and risk warnings
Past performance is not a guide to future returns
This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’). It does not constitute investment advice. Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested.
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