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The information and material contained in this website are designed to provide information on Martin Currie and is only directed at Institutional Investors and Consultants.

By accepting where indicated, you hereby acknowledge, agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are eligible by confirming that you are based in the UK, you are an authorised to conduct regulated activities in the UK and that you have read and understood the "Legal & Regulatory Information", which applies to any investment in our products referred to in this website.

The information contained within this website does not constitute an offer of or an invitation to apply for securities:

In any jurisdiction where such offer or invitation is unlawful or
In which the person making such offer is not qualified to do so or
To whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The distribution of this information in written format is restricted to the UK. The information contained in this site has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy at the date of publication. But no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Any research or analysis contained in this website has been procured by Martin Currie for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
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Important information

The information and material contained in this website are designed to provide information on Martin Currie and is only directed at Institutional Investors and Consultants.

By accepting where indicated, you hereby acknowledge, agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are eligible by confirming that you are based in the UK, you are an authorised to conduct regulated activities in the UK and that you have read and understood the "Legal & Regulatory Information", which applies to any investment in our products referred to in this website.

The information contained within this website does not constitute an offer of or an invitation to apply for securities:

In any jurisdiction where such offer or invitation is unlawful or
In which the person making such offer is not qualified to do so or
To whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The distribution of this information in written format is restricted to the UK. The information contained in this site has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy at the date of publication. But no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Any research or analysis contained in this website has been procured by Martin Currie for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
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Please read this important information. If you cannot make the representations below, please do not enter the website.

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are a resident of or incorporated in the United Kingdom have read and understood the "Important Information and Risk Factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are categorised as a per se or elective Professional Client for the purposes of COBS 3 of the FCA Handbook or rules and guidance. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Fund Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC104896) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority as a full-scope UK AIFM.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Please read this important information. If you cannot make the representations below, please do not enter the website.

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are a resident of or incorporated in the United Kingdom have read and understood the "Important Information and Risk Factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are categorised as a per se or elective Professional Client for the purposes of COBS 3 of the FCA Handbook or rules and guidance. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Fund Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC104896) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority as a full-scope UK AIFM.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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All residents of Hong Kong: Neither Martin Currie Investment Management Limited nor Martin Currie Inc. carries on a business in a regulated activity in Hong Kong or is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission. The content of this section of the website is intended for Professional Investors only.

All residents of Singapore: The information in this section of the website is intended for institutional investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore, as amended) and consultants in Singapore only.

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All residents of South Korea: The information in this section of the website is intended only for qualified professional investors and consultants based in South Korea.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are incorporated in a country listed below and that you are either an institutional investor, a corporate professional investor or a consultant business. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public. If you cannot make these representations, please do not enter the website.

All residents of Hong Kong: Neither Martin Currie Investment Management Limited nor Martin Currie Inc. carries on a business in a regulated activity in Hong Kong or is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission. The content of this section of the website is intended for Professional Investors only.

All residents of Singapore: The information in this section of the website is intended for institutional investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore, as amended) and consultants in Singapore only.

All residents of China: Neither Martin Currie Investment Management Limited nor Martin Currie Inc. is authorised by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to market its strategies in China. By clicking on this link, you warrant and represent that you are entering this website on your own initiative and without being influenced or induced by any third party to do so.

All residents of South Korea: The information in this section of the website is intended only for qualified professional investors and consultants based in South Korea.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are an Australian wholesale client for the purposes of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and have read and understood the "Legal and Regulatory Information”", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public. If you cannot make these representations, please do not enter the website.

Important Information:

Martin Currie Australia is a division of Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 849). Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL No. AFSL 240827) issued pursuant to the Corporations Act 2001.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

The FCA's regulatory regime differs from the Australian regulatory regime.
This material is provided on the basis that you are a wholesale client within the definition of ASIC Class Order 03/1099. Martin Currie is registered as a foreign company under the Corporations Act 2001 (ARBN 131 134 613). It is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services provided to Australian wholesale clients by virtue of the application of ASIC Class Order 03/1099.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you are an Australian wholesale client for the purposes of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and have read and understood the "Legal and Regulatory Information”", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public. If you cannot make these representations, please do not enter the website.

Important Information:

Martin Currie Australia is a division of Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 849). Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL No. AFSL 240827) issued pursuant to the Corporations Act 2001.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

The FCA's regulatory regime differs from the Australian regulatory regime.
This material is provided on the basis that you are a wholesale client within the definition of ASIC Class Order 03/1099. Martin Currie is registered as a foreign company under the Corporations Act 2001 (ARBN 131 134 613). It is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services provided to Australian wholesale clients by virtue of the application of ASIC Class Order 03/1099.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Please read this important information. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public. If you cannot make the following representations, please do not enter the website.

All residents of Luxembourg, Republic of Ireland, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Italy, Belgium and France: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are categorised as a per se or elective Professional Client for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU (“MiFID II”). The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

All residents of Switzerland: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that that you are resident in or incorporated in Switzerland and that you are a Qualified Investor for the purposes of Article 10 of the Collective Investment Schemes Act. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Investment Management Limited has a MiFID II passport to provide investment services to Professional Clients in the European Union.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Please read this important information.

All residents of Luxembourg, Republic of Ireland, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Italy, Belgium and France: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are categorised as a per se or elective Professional Client for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU (“MiFID II”). The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

All residents of Switzerland: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that that you are resident in or incorporated in Switzerland and that you are a Qualified Investor for the purposes of Article 10 of the Collective Investment Schemes Act. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Investment Management Limited has a MiFID II passport to provide investment services to Professional Clients in the European Union.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Investors resident in the Canada: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are resident in, or incorporated in, Canada and are a Permitted Client for the purposes of NI 31-103. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Investors resident in the United States of America: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are either incorporated in, or a resident of, the United States of America and that you meet the definition of an Accredited Investor as defined in Rule 501 of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (‘The 1933 Act’). The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York with its registered office at 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com, is registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940 and is also authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc. operates under the International Adviser Exemption with the Ontario Securities Commission (‘OSC’) and is therefore currently not required to be registered as a portfolio manager for the purposes of MI 31-103.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940, National Instruments or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Investors resident in the Canada: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are resident in, or incorporated in, Canada and are a Permitted Client for the purposes of NI 31-103. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Investors resident in the United States of America: By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that you are either incorporated in, or a resident of, the United States of America and that you meet the definition of an Accredited Investor as defined in Rule 501 of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (‘The 1933 Act’). The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person in any other jurisdiction, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York with its registered office at 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com, is registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940 and is also authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc. operates under the International Adviser Exemption with the Ontario Securities Commission (‘OSC’) and is therefore currently not required to be registered as a portfolio manager for the purposes of MI 31-103.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940, National Instruments or any other applicable law or regulation.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Please read this important information. If you cannot make the representations below, please do not enter the website.

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that: (i) you are an institutional investor, an intermediary investor a consultant or other professional investor; and (ii) you are entering this website on your own initiative and without being influenced or induced by any third party to do so. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Please read this important information. If you cannot make the representations below, please do not enter the website.

By clicking on this link, you agree and represent to Martin Currie that you have read and understood the "Important information and risk factors", which apply to any investment in our products referred to in this website, and that: (i) you are an institutional investor, an intermediary investor a consultant or other professional investor; and (ii) you are entering this website on your own initiative and without being influenced or induced by any third party to do so. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Global growth – what should we worry about?

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is cautiously optimistic on the prospects for a gradual global economic growth recovery...

Cautious optimism from the top down

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook1 is cautiously optimistic on the prospects for a gradual global economic growth recovery, following last year’s 2.9% growth rate with a 3.3% in 2020 and 3.4% in 2021. The principal trigger for the downgrade of these forecasts from prior editions is India, who is now into the third year of economic slowdown.

The guarded optimism for the next two years is founded on the expectation that a group of emerging economies return to their longer-term average growth rates, including India, but also counting Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Turkey. The widespread reductions in interest rates that we have seen in 2019 are feeding through now, underpinning much of this optimism.

For investors, this is a relatively good backdrop for global investing and bodes well for returns in 2020, but there are two clearly recognised key risks to bear in mind, and some less generally accepted, but still significant factors, at least for specific regions of the world.

The risks – some recognised, others not so much

One recognised risk is trade deterioration, especially if the ‘tariff war’ between the US and China continues and spreads further to other countries. The table below demonstrates the extent of the global trade slowdown that took place in 2019. Of the world’s top traders, the US has the lowest trade intensity2, at 32%. The UK for example, has 62% trade intensity, while Korea’s is 76%. Hong Kong of course lives for trade, with a 371% trade intensity. A freeze or de-escalation in the trade war would be very positive for these countries.

2019: A Bad Year for the World's Trades Superpowers

Change in global merchandise trade volume Q1-Q3 2018 to Q1-Q3 2019 of world's top ten traders

Meanwhile, looming on the horizon is a potentially very thorny trade negotiation between the US and Europe. The EU has quietly become the world’s most important regulatory body, which ostensibly does not sit well with the current White House. This leadership status is backed by the Union’s position as the biggest consumer market in the world but clearly is going to be a bone of contention for Washington DC.

The other key risk is the scenario whereby the technology sector value chain is further distorted by rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China. That would be very damaging to growth, to investment and to earnings in fairly short order. This is most evident today in technology, but it has ramifications for every supply chain in the global economy.

Hope is an expensive commodity. It is better to be prepared.

(Thucydides)

Companies spent decades designing and calibrating their supply chains to achieve the optimal combination of cost, quality, reliability and synchronisation. Corporate earnings have risen, and consumers have benefitted from these optimised logistics chains. We have now injected a new component, politics, which is tough to quantify and is by definition unstable.

A regionally very significant issue is the final shape of Brexit – it seems more likely now that a ‘hard’ Brexit is a possibility, given all the red lines being put out by both sides. The cost to the economies of the UK and the EU will be significant, but tough to define at this point, given the wide range of potential outcomes. What is clear is that over half the UK’s exports go to the EU and the UK is a highly trade dependent economy.

Finally, climate change is an overriding and still underappreciated global phenomenon that constitutes significant ongoing risk and demands robust policy response, which so far appears to be lacking. This is something that is important, and we at Martin Currie will be researching further in the coming weeks and months.

1 IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/01/20/weo-update-january2020
2 Martin Currie and national trade statistics as at 31 December 2019: Trade intensity is a measure of the importance of trade for a country’s economy. The calculation is Imports + Exports, divided by GDP. The numbers are sourced from Martin Currie’s proprietary Country Risk Framework, which feeds data from the relevant country’s trade statistics office.


Regulatory information and risk warnings

Past performance is not a guide to future returns

The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular strategy / fund / security. It should not be assumed that any of the security transactions discussed here were or will prove to be profitable.

The opinions contained in this recording are those of the named manager. They may not necessarily represent the views of other Martin Currie managers, strategies or funds. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, research, a guarantee of future results or investment advice.

The information contained has been complied with considerable care to ensure its accuracy. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Martin Currie has procured any research or analysis contained in this recording for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.