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Martin Currie Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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Martin Currie Australia is a division of Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 849). Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL No. AFSL 240827) issued pursuant to the Corporations Act 2001.

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

The FCA's regulatory regime differs from the Australian regulatory regime.
This material is provided on the basis that you are a wholesale client within the definition of ASIC Class Order 03/1099. Martin Currie is registered as a foreign company under the Corporations Act 2001 (ARBN 131 134 613). It is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services provided to Australian wholesale clients by virtue of the application of ASIC Class Order 03/1099.

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Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Investment Management Limited has a MiFID II passport to provide investment services to Professional Clients in the European Union.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000 or any other applicable law or regulation.

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Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York with its registered office at 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com, is registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940 and is also authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc. operates under the International Adviser Exemption with the Ontario Securities Commission (‘OSC’) and is therefore currently not required to be registered as a portfolio manager for the purposes of MI 31-103.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940, National Instruments or any other applicable law or regulation.

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Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you. This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.

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Martin Currie Investment Management Limited, registered in Scotland (no SC066107). Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2ES Tel: (44) 131 229 5252 Fax: (44) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Martin Currie Inc, 620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor New York, NY 10018 is also registered with the Securities Exchange Commission as an investment adviser for the purposes of the Investment Advisers Act 1940.

For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, the Investment Advisers Act 1940 or any other applicable law or regulation. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

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Global Long-Term Unconstrained update - October 2019

Zehrid Osmani provides an update on the Global Long-Term Unconstrained strategy and market.

Zehrid Osmani Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained

What has been happening in the markets?

We are long-term investors, which we define as 5 to 10 years time horizon, however, sometimes it's useful to look back on the previous quarter, which is what we're doing here. It has been a very volatile market environment was a lot of uncertainty both on the geopolitical and on the macro front.

On the geopolitical side, we've had the ongoing US China trade tensions. Those have intensified to say the least, we are heading into some further discussions but it's unclear as to what the final outcome will be. We've also had the Middle East tensions flaring up with the attack on the Saudi Oil production facilities. That has led to a very volatile oil price to say the least.

And finally on the Brexit front that there will be a further delay. However, everything is still possible and there's certainly been a lot of volatility around UK exposed names.

What does the macroeconomic environment look like?

The macroeconomic momentum has continued to deteriorate as far as manufacturing PMI's are concerned and that's been the case across most of the regions globally. On the services PMI the momentum has also been weakening, which could be unnerving and we need to keep a close eye on that.

Finally, in terms of yield curve inversion, that's been an important talking point for the market. It has been historically a signal of upcoming recession. There are some reasons why this might not be the case this time round but it's certainly going to stay an important focus points for the market. Finally central banks have been very accommodative and have been even more so as we've seen with the Fed, and the ECB actions in this quarter.

How significant has the recent style rotation been?

An important development during the quarter, certainly in the last month of the quarter has been a rotation in terms of quality versus value. Value has bounced quite significantly versus quality which has been reflected with sectors like financials, energy or utilities performing very strongly. We have talked in the past about the very unusually wide valuation gap between quality and value and that there would be potentially some style rotation coming up and this could be one such reflection.

How has this impacted performance?

As far as the fund performance is concerned during the quarter, the fact that there has been a rotation away from quality towards value as meant that the fund has performed weakly versus market, which is something that we would have expected given our persistent quality growth bias in terms of exposure. This is not something that worries us and for us. It's very short-term in terms of performance.

Looking at the long term-time horizon that we're looking at,  we are comfortable with how portfolio is positioned given the geopolitical and the macro uncertainties out there. We are continuing to focus the portfolio on gaining exposure to companies that have got an attractive growth profile, high return on invested capital, sustainable business model and that have pricing power in a world where we think there is a lack of inflationary pressures and in fact, there are some strong deflationary undercurrents.


Regulatory information and risk warnings

Past performance is not a guide to future returns

This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’). It does not constitute investment advice. Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested.

The analysis of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors form an important part of the investment process and helps inform investment decisions. The strategy does not necessarily target particular sustainability outcomes.

The opinions contained in this recording are those of the named manager. They may not necessarily represent the views of other Martin Currie managers, strategies or funds. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, research, a guarantee of future results or investment advice.

The information contained has been complied with considerable care to ensure its accuracy. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Martin Currie has procured any research or analysis contained in this recording for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that any of the security transactions discussed here were, or will prove to be, profitable.