The Q1 2023 results season is getting close to an end with a generally supportive picture from developed markets, and consensus estimates for 2023 getting closer to our top-down estimates.
A supportive picture for developed markets
A stronger picture coming from Europe compared to the US
European results season was supportive with consensus beats on both sales and earnings, and posting strong year-on-year earnings growth. But the US was less with companies posting negative year-on-year earnings growth.
Growth achieved in both Europe and the US has been stronger than expected, with year-on-year sales growth of +3.9% and +4.3% respectively, although there is more contrast on earnings growth, with +16% and -4% for Europe and US respectively.
Japan’s result season was supportive with strong growth, whereas Asia had more mixed growth, but with strong positive surprises coming through.
US ‘Big Tech’ beating on both sales and earnings
Big tech companies in the US have been beating on both sales and earnings, providing some support to the sector in general.
Some noticeable cyclical companies have also been posting strong results across geographies.
In contrast, Energy, Utilities and Materials companies have generally been weighed down during the results season by commodities and energy prices rolling over
Signs of a supportive inflection in earnings revisions
Earnings momentum has remained negative ahead of the results season, although downgrades pre- and post-results season have been less marked than in the previous twelve months, showing signs of stabilisation and/or inflection.
It is too early to call this stabilisation or inflection a trend at this stage, given the ongoing potential downside risks to the economic climate.
Europe and UK in particular are now seeing positive earnings revisions.
Consensus is now expecting +1% on Global earnings growth yearon- year, +0% for North America, +4% for Europe, and 0% for Asia.
Our top down estimates remain unchanged; we continue to forecast 2023 earnings growth of +0% at the Global level, -1% for the US, -5% for Europe, and +5% for Asia.
Source: Martin Currie and FactSet as at 14 May 2023.
Generally, we have seen the proportion of companies beating expectations increasing compared to the last 4-6 quarters. In our May market insights, we look at the key aspects at both a regional and sector level.
Regulatory information and risk warnings
This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’), authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It does not constitute investment advice. Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested.
The information contained in this document has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Martin Currie has procured any research or analysis contained in this document for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
The document does not form the basis of, nor should it be relied upon in connection with, any subsequent contract or agreement. It does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or otherwise acquire shares in any of the products mentioned.
Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Risk warnings – Investors should also be aware of the following risk factors which may be applicable to the strategy shown in this document.
- Investing in foreign markets introduces a risk where adverse movements in currency exchange rates could result in a decrease in the value of your investment.
- This strategy may hold a limited number of investments. If one of these investments falls in value this can have a greater impact on the strategy’s value than if it held a larger number of investments.
- Smaller companies may be riskier and their shares may be less liquid than larger companies, meaning that their share price may be more volatile.
- Emerging markets or less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries. Accordingly, investment in emerging markets is generally characterised by higher levels of risk than investment in fully developed markets.
The views expressed are opinions of the portfolio managers as of the date of this document and are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, research, a guarantee of future results or investment advice.
Regulatory information and risk warnings
This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’), authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It does not constitute investment advice. Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested.
The information contained in this document has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Martin Currie has procured any research or analysis contained in this document for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
The document does not form the basis of, nor should it be relied upon in connection with, any subsequent contract or agreement. It does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or otherwise acquire shares in any of the products mentioned.
Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Risk warnings – Investors should also be aware of the following risk factors which may be applicable to the strategy shown in this document.
- Investing in foreign markets introduces a risk where adverse movements in currency exchange rates could result in a decrease in the value of your investment.
- This strategy may hold a limited number of investments. If one of these investments falls in value this can have a greater impact on the strategy’s value than if it held a larger number of investments.
- Smaller companies may be riskier and their shares may be less liquid than larger companies, meaning that their share price may be more volatile.
- Emerging markets or less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries. Accordingly, investment in emerging markets is generally characterised by higher levels of risk than investment in fully developed markets.
The views expressed are opinions of the portfolio managers as of the date of this document and are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, research, a guarantee of future results or investment advice.
For professional investors in Canada.
This material is intended for residents in, or incorporated in, Canada and are a Permitted Client for the purposes of MI 31-103. The information on this section of the website is not intended for use by any other person, including members of the public.
Martin Currie Inc, incorporated in New York with its registered office at 280 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10017 and having a UK branch registered in Scotland (no SF000300), Head office, 5 Morrison Street, 2nd floor, Edinburgh, EH3 8BH, Tel: +44 (0) 131 229 5252 Fax: +44 (0) 131 222 2532 www.martincurrie.com, operates under the International Adviser Exemption with the Ontario Securities Commission (‘OSC’) and is therefore currently not required to be registered as a portfolio manager for the purposes of MI 31-103. Martin Currie Inc. is also authorised by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.
For the avoidance of doubt, nothing excludes, limits or restricts our obligations to you under the UK Financial Services and Market Act 2000, National Instruments or any other applicable law or regulation.
The opinions and views in this website do not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended to be recommendations of particular financial instruments or strategies to you.
This website does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering any financial transaction. You should consult with your professional advisers before undertaking any investment activity. The information provided on this website should not be treated as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or other investment. The information on this website has not been reviewed by any competent regulatory authority.
Regulatory information and risk warnings
This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’), authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It does not constitute investment advice. Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested.
The information contained in this document has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Martin Currie has procured any research or analysis contained in this document for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
The document does not form the basis of, nor should it be relied upon in connection with, any subsequent contract or agreement. It does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or otherwise acquire shares in any of the products mentioned.
Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Risk warnings – Investors should also be aware of the following risk factors which may be applicable to the strategy shown in this document.
- Investing in foreign markets introduces a risk where adverse movements in currency exchange rates could result in a decrease in the value of your investment.
- This strategy may hold a limited number of investments. If one of these investments falls in value this can have a greater impact on the strategy’s value than if it held a larger number of investments.
- Smaller companies may be riskier and their shares may be less liquid than larger companies, meaning that their share price may be more volatile.
- Emerging markets or less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries. Accordingly, investment in emerging markets is generally characterised by higher levels of risk than investment in fully developed markets.
The views expressed are opinions of the portfolio managers as of the date of this document and are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, research, a guarantee of future results or investment advice.
For wholesale investors in Australia:
This material is provided on the basis that you are a wholesale client within the definition of ASIC Class Order 03/1099. MCIM is authorised and regulated by the FCA under UK laws, which differ from Australian laws.
Regulatory information and risk warnings
This information is issued and approved by Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (‘MCIM’), authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It does not constitute investment advice. Market and currency movements may cause the capital value of shares, and the income from them, to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested.
The information contained in this document has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Martin Currie has procured any research or analysis contained in this document for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
The document does not form the basis of, nor should it be relied upon in connection with, any subsequent contract or agreement. It does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or otherwise acquire shares in any of the products mentioned.
Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Risk warnings – Investors should also be aware of the following risk factors which may be applicable to the strategy shown in this document.
- Investing in foreign markets introduces a risk where adverse movements in currency exchange rates could result in a decrease in the value of your investment.
- This strategy may hold a limited number of investments. If one of these investments falls in value this can have a greater impact on the strategy’s value than if it held a larger number of investments.
- Smaller companies may be riskier and their shares may be less liquid than larger companies, meaning that their share price may be more volatile.
- Emerging markets or less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries. Accordingly, investment in emerging markets is generally characterised by higher levels of risk than investment in fully developed markets.
The views expressed are opinions of the portfolio managers as of the date of this document and are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, research, a guarantee of future results or investment advice.
For professional investors:
In the People’s Republic of China:
This document does not constitute a public offer of the strategy, whether by sale or subscription, in the People’s Republic of China (the “PRC”). These strategies are not being offered or sold directly or indirectly in the PRC to or for the benefit of, legal or natural persons of the PRC.
Further, no legal or natural persons of the PRC may directly or indirectly purchase any of the strategy or any beneficial interest therein without obtaining all prior PRC’s governmental approvals that are required, whether statutorily or otherwise. Persons who come into possession of this document are required by the issuer and its representatives to observe these restrictions.
In Hong Kong:
The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the offer. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice.
In South Korea:
This document is for information purposes only. It is prepared and presented to provide an introduction to the business of MCIM and its related companies (collectively known as ‘Martin Currie’). This document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to invest in any security, fund or other vehicle managed or advised by Martin Currie.
None of the security(ies), fund(s) or vehicle(s) managed by or advised by Martin Currie are registered in South Korea under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act of Korea and accordingly, none of these instruments nor any interest therein may be offered, sold or delivered, or offered or sold to any person for re-offering or resale, directly or indirectly, in South Korea or to any resident of South Korea except pursuant to applicable laws and regulations of South Korea.
Martin Currie is not registered with or regulated by any regulatory authorities in South Korea.